Parent Layer: Vulture Species Theme

Name: Vulture Species

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Description: Sensitivity classes are based on the estimated utilization distribution of the Cape Vulture in South Africa. The model used to arrive to this utilization distribution works in three main steps: 1. We defined movement patterns for the species using tracking data and step-selection analysis. 2. We used the locations of known well-established colonies to simulate Cape Vulture movements (sequential locations) around them, based on the patterns we learned in step 1. We simulated Cape Vulture locations until their spatial distribution reached a stationary distribution (it didn't change much if we kept simulating more movements). We considered this the utilization distribution (UD) around one colony. 3. We added up the UDs from all the known colonies and we weighted them by the number of vultures expected to use them. Thus, larger colonies accumulate more utilization than smaller colonies. An obvious limitation of the method stems from our imperfect data on colony locations and sizes. Certain areas of the country are currently better surveyed than others, but even those that are well covered are likely to change over time. Therefore, there is a need to conduct continuous colony monitoring and the population utilization distribution for the species should be updated according to the results. Another limitation is that our representation of Cape Vulture movement patterns captures the main general behaviour of the species, but might not properly capture the behaviour of any one individual or colony. The categories defined for the sensitivity map are based on the percentage of the population that could be potentially affected by development and its potential implications for the conservation status of the species, according to IUCN criteria: 1%-5% - low 5%-10% - medium 10%-20% - high (Vulnerable - 10% reduction in 10 years (or 3 generations) and less than 10000 ind) >20% - very high (Endangered - 20% reduction in 5 years (or 2 generations) and less than 2500 ind) Note that there is a polygon in the Eastern Cape where there is high uncertainty in terms of colony location and size (see Cervantes et al. 2023). At the same time, sightings of the species in this region are frequent. Following a precautionary principle, and until better data becomes available this polygon has been given a "high" risk category. Full Paper Reference: https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2809

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